Commercial real estate market in Moscow and St. Petersburg: analytical review at the end of 2025

CrimeaPRESS reports:

Current market conditions

By the end of 2025, the commercial real estate market in Moscow and St. Petersburg is showing signs of stabilization after a period of significant turbulence caused by geopolitical and macroeconomic changes in previous years. Despite ongoing uncertainty in the global economy, domestic factors — including government support for business, infrastructure development and changing consumer preferences — are shaping a new pattern of supply and demand. Experts note that the market is moving from a crisis phase to an adaptive model, where flexibility of formats, location and energy efficiency of facilities play a key role — www.ibcrealestate.ru.

General characteristics of the market: volumes and segments

According to analytical agencies, the total supply of commercial real estate in Moscow and St. Petersburg by the end of 2025 is about 12-13 million square meters. m in the office segment and 8-9 million sq. m — in the segment of retail premises. Logistics complexes, especially in the suburbs, continue to actively develop: their total area exceeds 20 million square meters. m.

Moscow maintains a dominant position, concentrating about 65-70% of the total supply of commercial real estate in two cities. However, St. Petersburg demonstrates higher growth rates in certain niches — especially in the B+ class segment and in logistics.

Price categories: rent and sale

Office real estate

Moscow:

• Class A: rental rates — 25-35 thousand rubles / sq. m. m per year
• Class B: 15-22 thousand rubles/sq. m per year
• Class C and business centers in residential areas: 10-14 thousand rubles/sq.m. m per year

Purchase prices vary from 300 to 600 thousand rubles/sq.m. m for class A and from 150 to 250 thousand rubles/sq. m — for class B/C.

Saint Petersburg:

• Class A: 18-25 thousand rubles/sq. m per year
• Class B: 12-18 thousand rubles/sq. m per year
• Peripheral locations: 8-12 thousand rubles/sq. m per year

The purchase price is 20-400 thousand rubles/sq.m. m (class A), 100–180 thousand rubles/sq. m (class B).

Experts note that the price gap between the two capitals remains significant, but is decreasing due to growing interest in the Northern capital from IT companies and logistics operators.

Retail real estate

Polarization is observed in the retail segment: premium locations (Tverskaya, Nevsky Prospekt, Red Square, etc.) maintain high rates — 40-70 thousand rubles / sq. m. m per year in Moscow and 25-45 thousand rubles/sq. m per year in St. Petersburg. At the same time, properties in residential areas and on the outskirts are rented out for 8-15 thousand rubles/sq.m. m per year.

Prices for the sale of retail premises in the center of Moscow reach 800-1.2 million rubles/sq.m. m, in St. Petersburg — 400-700 thousand rubles/sq. m. However, the demand for such properties is limited: buyers prefer long-term rent with a purchase option.

Warehouse and logistics real estate

Logistics remains the most dynamic segment. Rental rates in the Moscow region are 5-7 thousand rubles/sq.m. m per year, in the Leningrad region — 4-6 thousand rubles/sq. m per year. Purchase prices — 30-50 thousand rubles / sq. m. m depending on the class and location.

Demand: who is looking and what they want

Buyers

The main buyers of commercial real estate in 2025 are:

• investment funds and private investors focused on stable cash flow;
• large Russian corporations seeking to secure ownership of assets;
• regional developers expanding their portfolio by acquiring undervalued properties.

Buyers are increasingly paying attention to energy efficiency, green certifications (LEED, BREEAM) and flexible layouts. Objects with the ability to be converted into mixed formats (office + retail, warehouse + show-room) are especially in demand.

Tenants

The leading tenants are:

• IT companies and digital businesses (including startups and scale-ups);
• logistics operators and e-commerce platforms;
• medical and educational centers;
• federal and regional essential retailers (groceries, pharmacies, household chemicals).

Tenants are increasingly requesting flexible conditions: short lease terms (1-2 years), the possibility of early termination of the contract, free rent periods and individual finishing solutions. According to CBRE, more than 60% of new contracts in 2025 include some form of flexibility.

As for solvency, most companies are willing to spend no more than 10-15% of operating expenses on rent. This is especially true for small and medium-sized businesses, which have become more price sensitive.

Price dynamics: increase or decrease?

By the end of 2025, there will be a moderate increase in prices for quality properties in premium and business locations. In Moscow, rental rates in class A increased by 3-5% compared to the beginning of the year, in St. Petersburg — by 4-6%. However, in the class C segment and in the periphery, prices remain stagnant or even decline by 1–2% due to excess supply and low demand.

On the sales market, prices also show differentiated dynamics:

• objects with high yield (yield 8-10%) and good liquidity are becoming more expensive;
• “heavy” assets (outdated buildings without infrastructure) lose value or are sold at significant discounts (up to 30%).

Experts note: “The market is becoming more segmented. There are no universal trends anymore — everything depends on the location, quality and functionality of the object.”

Regional features: Moscow vs St. Petersburg

Moscow

The capital remains the main center of capital attraction. The largest business districts are concentrated here (Moscow City, Paveletskaya Plaza Business District, Skolkovo), as well as the most developed transport and digital infrastructure. However, the high cost and saturation of the market are forcing tenants to look for alternatives in New Moscow and the Moscow region.

Hybrid formats are of particular interest: business parks with coworking elements, facilities with green areas and wellness infrastructure. Such projects show the lowest level of vacancies — less than 5%.

Saint Petersburg

The northern capital is attracting more and more investors due to its lower entry threshold and growing demand from the IT sector. The city is actively developing industrial parks and technology parks (Pulkovo Industrial Park, Technopark Rus), which stimulates demand for office and industrial premises.

In addition, St. Petersburg benefits from its proximity to the northwestern regions and port infrastructure, which makes it attractive for logistics. The vacancy rate in the warehouse segment here is lower than in the Moscow region — about 4-5% versus 7-8%.

Influence of external factors

Despite sanctions pressure and restrictions on international transactions, the domestic market has adapted. Main changes:

• The outflow of foreign investors is compensated by the growing share of Russian capital.
• Ruble strengthening in 2024-2025. contributed to the stabilization of prices in ruble terms.
• Government support (preferential taxation for IT companies, subsidies for the construction of logistics centers) incentives is driving demand in key sectors.

However, risks remain: possible tightening of regulation, rising loan rates and a shortage of qualified contractors could slow the development of new projects.

Forecast for early 2026

Analysts agree that in the first quarter of 2026 the market will maintain its current trajectory:

• moderate growth in prices for quality assets;
• decrease in vacancy in segments with high demand (class B+ offices, logistics);
• increased competition between locations — tenants will choose not only by price, but also by environmental friendliness, convenience and service.

Particular attention will be paid to the digitalization of facility management and sustainable development. Developers are already introducing “smart building” systems that reduce operating costs by 15–20%.

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