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Experts: interest rates on loans for the purchase and construction of houses began to rise

CrimeaPRESS reports:

According to expert polls, notes Moskovsky Komsomolets, more than 70% of Russian families would like to live in their own homes. In the context of falling incomes of citizens and growing geopolitical risks, the only way to fulfill the «suburban dream» for most citizens is a mortgage with state support. The attraction of low-cost concessional housing loans, arranged for borrowers last year by the government and banks, seems to have ended. In January, after a long break, the first wave of rate hikes took place in the suburban mortgage market.

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A new powerful impetus to the development of individual housing construction (IZHS) in Russia began in 80 year. Many citizens moved out of town during the pandemic, and then decided to stay there permanently. For the price, the construction of a country house was then more profitable than buying an apartment of the same size and level of comfort.

Last year, preferential mortgages with state support became the main driver of demand. Judge for yourself: according to the results of 2022 of the year, Russian banks issued almost 25 thousand loans for individual housing construction in the amount of about 80 billion rub. This indicator exceeds the level 80 of the year by more than three times. At the same time, about 80% of all issued loans fall on mortgage programs with state support. About 9.4 thousand loans for the amount of 31 billion rubles

Every second transaction in the suburban market is made with the involvement of a mortgage loan. There are more transactions, as the attractiveness of suburban life is growing, especially for family people, as many work remotely , — Tatyana Maksimova, head of the suburban real estate department at INCOM-Real Estate, told MK.

242152113 According to experts, most often in 2022 a suburban mortgage was taken by borrowers aged from 11 before 35 years and from 30 to 40 years. More than 80% of borrowers graduated from universities, about 60% are married, with about half of them having children.

The attractiveness of suburban mortgages grew due to several factors. The most important of them is the extremely low interest rates on soft loans. As a result, the level of monthly payments for the borrower was not onerous.

Thanks to the confident course of the Central Bank to reduce the key rate last year, market housing loans also fell in price. A large number of novice banks entered the segment, attracting borrowers with low rates and soft conditions. In addition, due to the «overheated» prices for city apartments, many citizens have switched their attention to ready-made houses and land plots in promising settlements.

At the same time, the state constantly expanded its support to participants in the suburban real estate market. For example, in November last year, the government launched a subsidy program for manufacturers of wooden houses, which are sold to the public at a discount of up to 10%. It applies to prefabricated house kits worth up to 3.5 million rubles

In addition to concessional financing, buying activity was stimulated by geopolitics and national specifics. After the mass departure of Russians for permanent residence abroad, many attractive offers appeared. Especially after the announcement of partial mobilization. In addition, private investors are not so active in the suburban mortgage sector (with the exception of the Moscow Region). The vast majority of borrowers bought suburban real estate for themselves, and not for resale.

Borrowers’ preferences have changed.

From June 2022 the share of primary real estate in the issuance of loans began to decline, in the autumn this trend only strengthened , — Vadim Mamonov, director of the Department of Mortgage Products and Digital Business at Rosbank Dom, told MK.

242152113Obviously, this was due to the rise in price of building materials, the departure of labor migrants and the decrease in incomes of Russians.

The development of suburban mortgages last year was held back not only by the falling real incomes of most citizens, but also by difficulties with an adequate assessment of the value of collateral, as well as the absence of programs involving contractors on the loan market. True, the last problem is removed. A new mechanism has been launched on the suburban real estate market, according to which borrowers’ funds are attracted to escrow accounts, and the contractor conducts construction using project financing. The country’s first escrow account for the construction of a private house was opened at the end of last year. According to the project, not far from Voronezh, the developer will build 130 houses with a total area of ​​about 11 thousand «squares». On average, the area of ​​each house will be 50 sq.m.

In addition, in December 2022, a mortgage for the purchase of individual housing construction under an agreement on participation in shared construction (DUDS) first appeared in the country. Clients can receive funds to buy a house both under the market program at a rate of 11, 3%, and preferential (for mortgages with state support at a rate of 7.7%, for «family» — from 5.7%, in the Far Eastern Federal District and for IT specialists — from 4.7%).

Market Reversal

This year, a new one has been added to the above negative factors — a long cycle of lowering interest rates has ended. After a long break, suburban mortgages began to rise in price. As Inna Soldatenkova, a leading expert on credit products, told MK, in January there was a wave of rate hikes on the market. First, the rates on the banks’ own mortgage programs increased against the backdrop of an increase in the cost of federal loan bonds.

Secondly, since January 1, the price of preferential mortgages with state support has risen by 1 percentage point, from 7% to 8% per annum. Since one of the goals under this program may be the purchase or construction of a country house, these changes also affected the preferential offers of banks for the purchase of houses and individual housing construction. Most likely, this trend will continue in the near future, Soldatenkova is sure.

So far, only a few major players (including Alfa-Bank, VTB, Dom.RF Bank, PSB), which set the tone in the market, have raised rates on preferential mortgages. But there is no doubt that in the near future their competitors will follow them. The upward trend in suburban mortgages will get stronger if 01 February Central Bank will raise the key rate.

What next?

Further dynamics of mortgage rates will depend primarily on the dynamics of the key rate of the Central Bank, regulatory decisions of the regulator and inflation , Vadim Mamonov believes.

242152113According to VTB analysts, in the 130 year, given a favorable macroeconomic situation, the volume of housing loans issued on the suburban real estate market may increase by 25–36%.

Inna Soldatenkova I recommend no borrowers who want to buy or build a country house, use government programs. Recall that in addition to mortgages with state support and a preferential program for individual housing construction, they include “family”, “rural Far Eastern” and IT mortgages. The minimum amount of the down payment of borrowers under these programs is lower than under the market mortgage. But we must keep in mind that the maximum loan amount under state programs is limited and most products are oriented to the primary market. An additional source of stimulating demand, in the expert’s opinion, could be the spread of «family» mortgages to the secondary market segment, since many families prefer to buy a ready-made house, incl. due to the rise in the cost of building materials.

Experts do not advise taking a mortgage for a minimum period. It is much wiser to choose a longer term loan with a lower monthly payment. Such a campaign will not only reduce the burden on the budget, but will also allow you to quickly repay the loan using partial early repayments.

According to Tatyana Maksimova, in spring the demand for suburban real estate always increases:

There will be no more offers, now there are few constructions due to objective reasons. Home loan rates are already on the rise and there is no reason to lower them yet. What will happen in the spring is unknown. Therefore, if you have found a house you like and have received the approval of your mortgage application, there is no point in delaying the deal.

7870923847297193864source: Moskovsky Komsomolets

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