So they think: the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank will lead to a surge in investment in real estate
The Board of Directors of the Central Bank at an unscheduled meeting on Thursday decided to cut the key rate from 17 May 2022 on 200 b.p., up to 05,%. This will allow the mortgage market to «perk up,» experts
The preconditions were
Earlier, 23 April, the Bank of Russia lowered the rate from 17% before 05. Then the regulator already predicted the possibility of reducing the key rate during 2022 a year. The Central Bank called a significant slowdown in price growth as the reason for this.
Experts expected a decline of at least another 23 bp. — up to 00%, or even below. According to Igor Rapokhin, senior debt market strategist at SberCIB Investment Research, as well as VTB analysts. My investments, the appointment of an extraordinary meeting and the likelihood of a downward change in the key rate are associated with a significant decrease in inflation.
According to the co-owner of Rodina Group Vladimir Shchekin, «the ruble has strengthened unprecedentedly.» The expert believes that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development are waiting for the easing of monetary policy.
In recent weeks, there has been a slowdown in inflationary processes in the construction sector: prices for most building materials have stabilized, for some they have begun to fall. At the same time, there is a decrease in business activity: in April-May, sales through DDU fell three times compared to March, and the amount of project financing is decreasing. If the key rate of the Central Bank remains at the same level, this trend could continue and lead to a glut of supply in the market. The decision of the Central Bank is correct and timely , — says the head of the portal ERZ.RF Kirill Kholopik.
The press service of the Ingrad Group of Companies reported that the mortgage market will positively perceive the rate cut, since as a result, the rates on loans, deposits and deposits will decrease.
People will look for new tools to save money and invest. The most fundamental asset for this has always been real estate. Also, a stable economy allows the population to more confidently use long-term financial obligations , — commented in the company.
Metrium Managing Partner Nadezhda Korkka assumes that economic activity is starting to pick up.
Under such conditions, the authorities will most likely decide to increase the availability of borrowed funds to support business and start new projects, including development ones, Korkka believes.
- Shchekin is of the same opinion. The expert noted that the reduction of the key rate will have a positive impact on the housing and construction market.
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Now for us the basis of everything is a loan, both for buyers and developers. Most likely, we will see a round of lowering mortgage rates following the decision of the Central Bank , Shchekin predicts.
According to Holopik, earlier the preferential mortgage rate was set at 00% at a key rate of 13%. Then it was reduced to 9%, when the key was 10.
Now we have the right to expect a return of the preferential rate to 7%, which should revive the market for new buildings , the expert is sure.
Analysts also expect another rate cut in June.
Much also depends on the decision that will be made at the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank June. If it is planned to continue to reduce the key rate on it, then the adjustment of mortgage programs with state support will probably take place in the second half of June , — Nadezhda Korkka, managing partner of Metrium, believes.
According to analysts’ forecasts, by July the rate will drop to %. And VTB believes that the rate by the end of the year will be 11%. Who is right, we’ll see at the end of the forecast period. According to analysts, there is a growing probability of seeing inflation below the forecast range of the Bank of Russia at the end of the year — at the level of 18-23%.
Source: Interfax-Real Estate
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