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What will it lead to: the demand for preferential mortgages at 8% jumped 1.5 times

CrimeaPRESS reports:

Demand for subsidized mortgages this year has grown one and a half times, despite the increase in the rate to 8%. This follows from the data of the corporation DOM.RF, which were reviewed by «News». The increased interest in the state program was confirmed in the largest banks. According to them, the volume of loans and the average check also increased, which indicates an increase in the cost of purchased real estate. At the same time, experts warn that there are already signs of a bubble forming in the market.

main factor

This year, Russians have become 1.5 times more likely to be interested in the preferential mortgage program, according to the materials of the state-owned company DOM.RF. In January-February (from January 1 to March 2), banks received 199.3 thousand applications from individuals against 133.8 thousand for the same period in 2022.

From the beginning of 2023, preferential mortgages for new buildings are issued at 8% per annum instead of 7% in the previous version of the program. The remaining parameters remain the same: the maximum loan amount for residents of Moscow, the Moscow Region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region is 12 million rubles, for other regions of Russia — 6 million with a minimum contribution of 15% for all citizens. These conditions will be valid until July 2024.

REFERENCE «Izvestia»

Preferential mortgages for new buildings at a rate of 6.5% per annum started in the spring of 2020. For Moscow and St. Petersburg, then the maximum loan amount was 8 million rubles, for other subjects — 3 million. In the summer of 2021, it was extended under new conditions — at 7%. At the end of 2022, the program was extended until July 2024 with a 1 p.p.

The largest banks have confirmed that preferential mortgages continue to be in demand. In January-February, Sberbank received 178 thousand applications for its execution, which is 32% more than in the same period of 2022, the bank said.

VTB noted that the state program is still the main factor in the development of the primary real estate market. Since the beginning of 2023, 7.1 thousand loans worth 44.2 billion rubles have been issued, which is 1.6 times more in volume than a year earlier, the bank said. The average bill reached about 6.2 million rubles against 2.5 million last year, and the term — 27 years against 20.

Since the beginning of the year, DOM.RF Bank has received about 17 thousand applications for preferential mortgages, which exceeds the figures for the same period in 2022 by almost 1.5 times. The approval rate is over 65% of the number of fully completed applications. Of these, as of mid-March, loans were issued in the amount of 12.2 billion rubles, or 2.5 times more than a year earlier— shared in a credit institution.

This year, the demand for subsidized mortgages has more than doubled, as has the number of loans issued, Gazprombank confirmed. Sovcombank said: despite the increase in the rate, there is a steady increase in the number of applications for the program from month to month. So, their number this year is almost twice as much as at the beginning of 2022, they added there. The trend is also seen in Novikombank and the Crimean RNCB.

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At the same time, in 2023, the demand for this program has not changed in Absolut Bank, Rosbank and Otkritie. The share of concessional loans in 2022 was at the level of 60% of all transactions with new buildings, and now it is 37%, UBRD stated. They explained that there are several reasons for the decrease in interest in the program: the growth of rates by 1 percentage point, the expansion of customer categories for family mortgages, which contributed to the flow of demand, as well as the restriction of programs with developers.

Bubble signs

From DOM.RF statistics, it follows that the total amount of loans in January-February increased by 1.8 times — from 85.3 billion to 152.1 billion rubles. This indicates, among other things, an increase in the cost of acquired real estate, said Natalia Bogomolova, an analyst at NRA banking ratings. Perhaps the current situation is also related to the continuing home loan schemes from developers, she admitted.

The growth of the mortgage portfolio is due to the presence in Russia of unrealized demand for housing, which people seek to satisfy with the advent of financial opportunities for this, explains Aghvan Mikaelyan, member of the board of directors of the FinExpertiza audit and consulting network. At the same time, he believes that the condition of 8% with current inflation is quite interesting from the point of view of financial investments.

If the borrower does not fall under other subsidized programs with a lower rate, and the property is purchased to improve housing conditions, then a preferential mortgage option can be considered, — recommends Natalia Bogomolova. — But it is also worth looking at the secondary housing, where the rate is higher, but due to the lower cost of the apartment, the purchase is likely to be more profitable.

At the same time, the expert drew attention to the signs of the formation of a bubble. In particular, the difference between prices in the primary and secondary markets is increasing, real estate is becoming more expensive compared to the growth rate of real incomes of the population. Lending standards have deteriorated: loans are issued to clients with a high debt load, and low down payments are increasingly required. Now, according to the Central Bank, the share of loans overdue over 90 days is low (0.7%), but the figure may rise sharply in the future.

From May this year, the Central Bank will increase premiums on mortgage risk ratios due to deteriorating lending standards. Thus, in the fourth quarter of 2022, 44% of loans were approved for clients with a debt load ratio of over 80%. The regulator previously noted that joint programs of developers and banks in the primary market led to a rise in real estate prices. Izvestia sent a request to the Central Bank.

source: News

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