CrimeaPRESS reports:
The period of increased solar activity, which is characterized by strong magnetic storms, will soon decline. However, it is too early to relax: there is a possibility that the most powerful outbreaks are yet to come. About this «Parliamentary newspaper» said the head of the solar astronomy laboratory at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sergei Bogachev.
Doesn’t reach the records yet
Sergei Alexandrovich, this Friday, November 7, the strongest magnetic storm of the year is predicted. Previously, you rated its level as G3-G4, but clarified that during the day it could change and grow to the highest — G5. What do the calculations say now?
— Yes, we carried out a recalculation during the day and found out that the geomagnetic index Kp (index of planetary geomagnetic activity. — Ed.) should remain at the G4 level tomorrow. The storm’s arrival at the highest level of G5 is currently considered unlikely, but in fact we will only be able to find out tomorrow when it arrives.
How dangerous are these types of events?
— We are not the Ministry of Emergency Situations, we are engaged in purely scientific research, so, of course, we cannot draw any conclusions about the danger of a storm or the onset of emergencies — this is simply not our area. But we can say that, for example, a year ago, in May, a storm of the highest level, G5, came to us — and it seemed like nothing, all the equipment survived it safely, mass outages and blackouts were not reported anywhere. Yes, of course, a magnetic storm is not a favorable phenomenon at all: the load on networks increases, the resource of equipment is consumed faster, and the likelihood of its failure increases. But nevertheless, you probably shouldn’t expect anything critical.
It seems that magnetic storms have been occurring more frequently lately, and their intensity is increasing. How justified is it?
“This is an absolutely correct impression that corresponds to the modern understanding of the physics of the Sun. According to it, the Sun goes into a state of high activity once every eleven years, when magnetic storms naturally become more frequent.
The last time this happened was in 2012-2013 — then, if you remember, it aroused great interest in wide circles.
It just so happened that shortly before this, conversations began about the ancient Mayan calendar, which promised us all an apocalypse in 2012. They even made a movie on this topic in Hollywood. Well, since then all this has managed to be forgotten, so now the next cycle of solar activity again seems like something new and alarming. Although in fact this has been a known and well-studied phenomenon for quite a long time. Suffice it to say that the current cycle is number 25, that is, humanity has already observed 24 such outbursts in its history.
It can be noted that the maximum solar activity that we will experience now, in the 2020s, is higher than the maximum that was observed in the 2010s. But it is not a record either: in the middle of the last century, for example, peaks of activity were recorded that were approximately 50 percent stronger than what we have now.
Superflares are still unpredictable
How long will the period of increased solar activity last?
— Peak activity usually lasts two to three years, now we are in our third year. However, it should be remembered here that in previous cycles the most powerful flares were recorded not at the height of the cycle, but precisely at the stage of its decline. For example, record figures for the 21st century were recorded in 2003, while the peak of activity occurred in 2001. Therefore, global solar activity will, of course, decrease, but magnetic storms will not disappear completely for the next three to four years.
Who should be wary of magnetic storms?
—Are we expecting record-breaking storms in the coming months or years?
“Today we know that the Sun is capable of producing superflares about a hundred times more powerful than what we are currently observing. And their frequency is even approximately known: there may be two or three such events per millennium. And there has not yet been a single superflare in the period of history accessible to us.
The Carrington event, for example, is widely known (a solar “superstorm” in 1859, which caused a massive failure of telegraph networks and northern lights that could be observed throughout the planet and even over the Caribbean islands. — Ed.), but even this falls short of a superflare, which can be tens of times more powerful. But since nothing like this has ever happened in the known history of space observations, we do not understand whether such outbreaks have precursors, whether they can be predicted, and so on. We only know in principle that the Sun is capable of producing them. But when they will happen, in our lifetime or in many centuries, we cannot yet say.
source: «Parliamentary newspaper»
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