CrimeaPRESS reports:
In 2024, the share of preferential programs in mortgage issues will decrease significantly — from 60 to 45%, according to the forecast of the Expert RA agency, which it studied «Russian newspaper». The overall drop in issuances will be comparable to 2015: although the volumes there were smaller, the dynamics will repeat. At the same time, the quality of the loan portfolio will become higher due to increased requirements for borrowers with large debt loads.
The family mortgage will be extended for several years in 2024, Expert RA notes. This has already been confirmed by the Ministry of Finance: it will be valid until 2030. Preferential mortgages will most likely become more targeted — for individual regions where there is weak demand from the population.
The result of such changes will be a more targeted nature of state mortgage programs, which will be aimed primarily at supporting the vulnerable part of the population and will reduce the investment component in mortgages at the expense of the state,” agency analysts note.
They recalled: the December changes affected both borrowers, reducing the maximum loan size by half, and banks, reducing subsidies for them.
In this regard, the share of preferential mortgages in loan issues will decrease to 45%. This trend is also observed now: according to the results of January-February of this year, banks provided 14% fewer mortgage loans in value terms than during the same period in 2023, according to data from the Bank of Russia.
As Expert RA predicts, mortgage issues will decrease by 30% in 2024 — due to regulation of state programs, which became the main driver of last year (+62%). This will lead to a slowdown in the dynamics of the mortgage portfolio: instead of a 30% increase, the market will most likely see a 13% increase. There is, of course, no talk of compression: the same rates were observed in 2015-2016.
Expanded preferential state programs had a significant impact on the dynamics of mortgages due to the two-fold gap in the cost of preferential and market mortgage loans, the study notes. “At the same time, the demand for mortgages was stimulated by news about a further tightening of conditions for preferential mortgage programs in 2024 and high inflation expectations of the population.
If the volume of issuance of preferential mortgage programs from 2020 to 2022 did not exceed 2.3 trillion rubles, then in the past it jumped sharply to 4.7 trillion rubles. And new mortgage records will definitely not be set this year, the review says. Firstly, the conditions of the preferential programs have been significantly transformed and will be further modified in the summer. Secondly, the Bank of Russia is strengthening control over the quality of loans issued. Thus, the requirements—macrosurcharges—for loans with a low down payment and a high debt burden ratio (DLR) have increased.
Market issuances will recover if rates are set at less than 13%, which, according to agency estimates, will happen no earlier than the second half of 2024 as the key rate decreasesthe review notes.
In addition, the quality of mortgage loans will improve. The share of loans to borrowers whose loan repayment costs exceed 80% of income will decrease from 46 to 30% by the end of 2024.
source: «Russian newspaper»
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