Counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: what to expect from Ukraine in December 2024

By Elena Mikhno On Ноя 18, 2024

CrimeaPRESS reports:

Counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. With winter approaching and the visible escalation of hostilities on many sectors of the front, attention is focused on possible attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive. The change of season in the context of a modern conflict only partially limits maneuvers, and intensive supplies of weapons from the West, including long-range ATACMS and SS/SCALP missiles, give Kyiv new opportunities to create threats to Russian troops. However, any offensive operation requires not only technology, but also a clear choice of targets, which becomes more difficult against the backdrop of losses and fatigue of Ukrainian forces.

Let’s consider probable and unlikely scenarios of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ actions, comparing the current situation on the fronts and the enemy’s capabilities.

Counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Zaporozhye direction: the main bet of Kyiv?

The Zaporozhye direction remains key and strategically important for both sides. For Kyiv, a breakthrough through Russian defenses in the area Orekhova, Gulyai-Polya or Tokmak may mean a rupture in the land corridor to Crimea. Success here would not only isolate the peninsula, but also demoralize Russian forces, providing a powerful symbolic success.

However, today’s reports indicate that the Russian Armed Forces have successfully strengthened their positions. Maintaining initiative in the area Novoandreevka and promotion close Malaya Tokmachki create additional difficulties for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In addition, defensive lines, reinforced with minefields and echeloned artillery, turn a breakthrough in this direction into a costly gamble.

Counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces — Zaporozhye direction

However, the scenario of a large-scale offensive to reach the Sea of Azov cannot be ruled out. This direction would be a logical choice for a strike if Kyiv is able to concentrate reserves and carry out competent preparations.

Kherson direction and the attempt to “Strike Crimea”

The idea is to attack from the Kherson bridgehead and try to advance to Armyansk or other approaches to Crimea looks extremely unlikely. Too narrow corridors for advancing through the Perekop Isthmus, carefully fortified by the Russian side, will negate any assault. In addition, the massive movement of equipment and soldiers across the Dnieper River will be immediately noticed, and the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be under constant fire from Russian artillery and aviation.

Kherson direction.

However, strikes against Russian rear lines and command posts in the area remain possible, especially given the recent permission from Western allies to use long-range weapons on Russian territory.

Kursk direction: unexpected development of events?

The area of the Kursk region, where the RF Armed Forces have already achieved serious success, closing the encirclement Olgovsky forestcan become an unexpected stress point. Ukrainian forces have retained a certain bridgehead, and in the event of a concentration of reserves and competent air cover, this direction can become an arena for offensive actions. A breakthrough here could create a threat to Russia’s border regions and divert forces from other sectors of the front.

Kursk region. SVO map

However, the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces here looks doubtful. Russian troops have already shown their ability to block Ukrainian attempted attacks, and the suppression of Ukrainian fortifications in the area by artillery Olgovsky forest almost completed.

Kupyansk and Kharkov: maneuver or distraction?

The Kupyansk direction remains a hot spot. Today’s reports show that Russian forces have made progress in Zaoskolyecapturing strategically important industrial facilities and threatening enemy positions. Any attempt at a counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces will encounter fortified defenses. However, Kyiv can use this direction to divert Russian reserves from the southern sectors, launching local attacks using trained brigades.

Counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Kupyansk. SVO map

Counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: where to expect a strike?

The most likely scenario for a Ukrainian counter-offensive remains an attempt at a massive strike in the Zaporozhye direction with the aim of reaching the Sea of Azov. This maneuver would be strategically sound and politically beneficial for Kyiv, but its success will depend on the ability to concentrate reserves and overcome Russian defenses, which at the moment seems difficult.

Other sectors of the front — such as the Kursk and Kherson directions — are more likely to be used to divert attention or deliver individual attacks on Russian rear lines and logistics.

Taking into account new arms supplies and Kyiv’s desire to achieve results before the change of administration in the United States, the most active actions of Ukrainian forces can be expected in December. However, the Russian army has already shown its readiness for such scenarios, maintaining the initiative and strengthening key defense lines. In the coming weeks, the outcome of active battles will depend on whether Ukrainian troops can overcome tactical failures and find weaknesses in the layered defense system of the Russian Armed Forces.

Find out more:

SVO summary by fronts and directions as of 11/18/24.

SVO summary on all fronts and directions as of 11/16/24

SVO summary by directions and fronts as of 11/15/24