CrimeaPRESS reports:
The key rate may be increased by 1–2 percentage points at the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which will take place on October 25. This forecast is given by economists, noted Rustam Azizov, director for mortgage sales and implementation of financial instruments of the A101 Group of Companies, in an interview with a correspondent Cyan.Journal.
This appears to be a very realistic scenario, although there is no certainty that there will be any significant changes in the primary home and other real estate markets. Already, rates on mortgage programs without government support are at 25%, and this is perhaps the highest figure in many years. At this rate, it is unlikely that anyone will take out a mortgage loan,” the speaker emphasizes.
According to him, surveys show that the psychological limit of the mortgage rate for the population is 13%.
However, until the end of the year, developers can subsidize the rate only up to 15%. This is better than 25%, but still beyond the psychological threshold. And from the new year there will definitely not be such subsidies. Therefore, the rate at 25 or 27% does not matter: in any case, no one will apply for such a mortgage. And if there is no extension of the family mortgage on current terms and the emergence of new targeted programs, we will see a decrease in demand for housing by at least 90% compared to the first half of 2024notes Rustam Azizov.
The head of the Analytics Committee of the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers (RGUD), Mikhail Khorkov, also believes that from the point of view of market demand, it is no longer so important whether the rate will increase or not.
It has been a barrier for a long time and changes of 1–2 percentage points change little. But further growth will have an effect on supply. It will be more difficult for developers to agree on a financial model and obtain project financing“, the specialist explained.
General Director of PIA Real Estate Maxim Eltsov drew attention to the fact that there are currently no serious prerequisites for reducing inflation.
In addition, we see that banks have raised deposit rates in advance. I don’t want to look at market mortgage rates at all. These parameters indicate that the key rate will most likely be increased. But an increase of 1–2 percentage points will not have a real impact on the real estate marketthe expert suggested.
In his opinion, the main question now is not what the key rate will be in the coming months, but whether the market will see the prerequisites for reducing the key rate in the foreseeable future.
But now everything indicates that the real estate market has already reoriented towards long-term high rates. And, I repeat, raising the key rate at the next meeting of the Central Bank will not have much impact on the market; it will practically not react to it,” summed up Maxim Eltsov.
source: CYANOGEN
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