Experts: the end of preferential mortgages will lead to market transformation

«Let’s support, comrades!»

The participants in the discussion came to the curious conclusion that practically nothing will happen on the market immediately when the preferential mortgage program ends on July 1, but deeper transformation processes will have a serious impact on it over the course of several years.

After July 1, nothing will happen, but there is a feeling that preferential programs will continue to be “cut,” because they now provide almost 90% of the sales market for new buildings — this is an unhealthy indicator, it should be less, around 25%. Therefore, it is a sensible decision to leave only targeted programs,” said Oleg Repchenko, head of the Irn.ru analytical center.

The expert recalled that mortgages at market rates are also going through difficult times, since the high Central Bank rate makes interest rates almost prohibitive.

High rates for a long time. The most positive forecast is a reduction to a single-digit rate at the end of next year. In the next year or two there will be market mortgages at protective rates. Developers will work under these conditions,” the expert believes.

What should developers do? To take over those support functions that were previously performed by the state, says NOSTROY President Anton Glushkov.

Preferential programs are not only business support, they are primarily demand support and a tool for improving living conditions,” Glushkov recalled.

He emphasized that the spread of preferential programs has led to the fact that the buyer no longer cares about the price of the transaction — the monthly mortgage payment is much more important to him. And it is precisely this parameter that business will have to “replace” instead of the state, since the state is unlikely to expand support measures in the near future.

At the same time, business turns out to be not at all against supporting demand, but puts forward counter “requests.”

We are currently reducing the annuity payment, but in order to develop this, we need predictability of the economic situation. Business must be warned in advance so that the strategy can be adjusted. What’s needed is not support, what’s needed is predictability.,” Dmitry Samokhodkin, general director of Samolet 10D, called on the authorities.

Who’s in the black?

State Duma deputy, member of the Committee on Construction and Housing and Public Utilities Alexander Yakubovsky recalled that the mechanism of preferential mortgages itself was offered to the market as a “shoulder” in a difficult moment. And who benefited from it? It turns out that almost everything. Has the issue of housing affordability been resolved? This is debatable.

Who benefits from preferential mortgages? Population. It is important that the development market separated from construction and became independent. Development now is financial management, it’s marketing— Glushkov retorted.

At the same time, he noted that participation in the investor program is also not something negative.

I don’t see anything wrong with investing in real estate. And there is nothing wrong with using a preferential mortgage for savings— assured the head of NOSTROY.

At the same time, he also remembered the “accusations” made against businesses about the increase in margins. However, he emphasized that the increase in the price per square meter during the program lagged behind the increase in labor costs, prices of some building materials and other factors.

Therefore, despite the gradual increase in the price of a meter, the cost is growing higher. This is the main risk that cannot be transferred to the cost of a meter on the market“, notes Glushkov, joking that the “profitability” from development is distributed throughout the “food chain.

What can the state, in turn, offer to stop this race?

The affordability of a meter price depends on many factors. What can the state do? Increase infrastructure availability. This will have a big impact,” says Yakubovsky.

Prospect — work

Statements have been made many times about the inertia of the real estate market. Like, if you have gained momentum, then whether you like it or not, you can complete the construction for another two or three years. This is a certain threat, but at the same time it is a way out of a difficult situation.

It is clear that the number of transactions will decrease and that developers will have to reduce their turnover amid declining demand. How much? Time will tell.

The good news is that system developers have invested profits in land, sites, projects, and personnel. And now they are in a situation with an asterisk — they are faced with the task of maintaining the pace of work,” Glushkov recalled.

Yakubovsky agreed with these conclusions and assured that the business would cope with the situation on its own.

The market will begin to rebuild in the near future, because there will be no preferential mortgages. In my opinion, the market should self-regulate, we will slowly get there and that’s good. Business will eventually regulate itself. The cost will be more expensive for sure, but in the end we will return to the state of approximately 2005. But everyone will benefit from thisthe deputy predicts.

As for the mortgage market as an instrument in the housing market, there is a path here too.

The categorical nature of support, which should have been allocated even earlier, should remain… As for market mortgages, it has always been a tool for the middle class — we must strive to increase their income“, suggested Yakubovsky.

Let us remind you that the preferential mortgage program with state support expires on July 1, 2024. Previously, the initial payment on a preferential mortgage, which is issued at a rate of 8% per annum for the purchase of housing in new buildings, the construction of a private house or the acquisition of land for its construction, was increased from 20% to 30%. In addition, the maximum amount of a preferential loan is now 6 million rubles for all regions (previously for Moscow, the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region it was 12 million rubles).

As for the “Family Mortgage”, in April President Vladimir Putin ordered to extend the program until 2030, providing for maintaining the rate at no more than 6%. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance proposes to increase the rate for families with two minor children to 12% after July 1, 2024. Currently, families with one child born from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2023, two or more children under 18 years of age, or a child with a disability can take out a loan under this program.

The mortgage program for IT specialists aged 18 to 50 years inclusive suggests that they can buy an apartment in a new building or build a private house with a mortgage at a rate of 5%. The program is valid until the end of 2024.

source: Interfax-Real Estate