Forecast: by the beginning of 2025, mortgage rates may exceed 32% per annum

Let us remind you that earlier Sber raised rates on market mortgages by 3.5 percentage points. Mortgage rates on primary housing increased to 28.4% per annum, on secondary housing — to 28.1%.

Without taking into account the discount, mortgage rates in Sberbank already reach 31% per annum, the expert emphasized. He expects that the Central Bank will raise the key rate in December, and this increase will be the final one in the current monetary policy cycle. The key rate will remain at the same level for some time, and then the regulator will move to lower the rate. Taking into account the Bank of Russia’s base scenario, the key rate reduction will begin in 2025. As a result, mortgage lending will become more accessible.

According to Syrtsov’s forecast, by the beginning of 2025, market mortgage rates will be at their maximum, reaching 32-33% per annum. According to the expert, increasing mortgage rates will cut off about 10% of potential borrowers. These are mainly buyers who relied on loans subsidized by developers. Under the new conditions, a commission to the bank or an overpayment to the developer will not justify the final rate.

For standard mortgage loans, rates above 15% per annum are considered protective, recalled Yuri Belikov, managing director of the Expert RA rating agency. Now specific numbers and a correction of several percentage points are not decisive and do not affect demand, the expert emphasized. He explained that the mortgage market is already frozen by unaffordable rates under market programs, and housing affordability is at a historic low.

Banks are further increasing mortgage rates in anticipation of an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, added Sergei Gordeiko, chief expert of the Rusipoteka company. The expert is confident that other banks will raise rates following Sberbank and VTB. Sber occupies half of the mortgage market, Gordeiko emphasized. If Sber reports an increase in mortgage rates, it means that either other banks have already raised rates, or the 28.5% level will become the base level in the coming days.

source: CYANOGEN