Opinion: the Central Bank will save the key rate at the level of 21%

Krympress reports:

Market participants are waiting for the maintenance of the rate at the same level. But for the housing market, it is more important not this fact, but those guidelines that the Bank of Russia will give for the current and the following years. Today, February 7, an updated forecast will be presented, and the parameters of these changes will make it possible to clarify which direction the expectations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are displaced and, accordingly, when the cycle of reducing the key rate begins— explained the head of the Committee on the Analytics of the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers (RSUD) Mikhail Khorkov.

Amarkets lead analyst Igor Rastorguev believes that a further increase in the key rate is unlikely, even despite the growing inflation, which at the end of January reached almost 10% in annual terms.

In my opinion, the Bank of Russia has yet stopped at the threshold of 21%that the regulator has confirmed the December decision, refusing to increase. The main reason is in the loss of market sensitivity to such changes. At a rate of 25% or 30%, a loan for business and individuals is still inaccessible. Both bets look like a barrier barrier— the specialist notes.

Igor Rastorguev also added that those who use the services of microfinance organizations and similar companies, as well as credit cards of banks, are difficult to stop high interest, and the increase in the key rate in this market segment will not be reflected.

Preservation of the rate at current levels can favorably affect the market that will perceive this inaction as a step towards softening monetary policy— the speaker predicted.

Anna Zemlyanova, Chief Analyst of the Sovcombank, does not expect an increase in the key rate. She is in solidarity with colleagues who suggest that the value will remain at the current level.

In December, a noticeable cooling occurred in lending, even taking into account the release of bonds by companies. The last weekly inflation data has shown that price increases could slow down. We observe several signs of weakening of monetary conditions at once. As a result, the decision of the regulator will depend on the desire to maintain the stiffness of these conditions at the same level, — concluded the expert.

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