Russians live in debt, but in apartments: overdue debt on a mortgage for a year has doubled

The volume of overdue debt for a mortgage according to the results of the first half of 2025 reached 145 billion rubles. This is twice as much as a year earlier, emphasized by the expert of cyan. Analytics Elena Bobrovskaya. The share of «delay» increased over the year from 0.36 to 0.74%.

This is not a record indicator for the industry — until 2021 it was above 0.8%, but rapid growth is alarming. In 2023 and at the beginning of 2024, some of the borrowers paid off the debt due to the growth of income, so the delay volume grew very slowly, and its share decreased. Tighting mortgage conditions and slowing down the growth of salaries in the second half of last year led to the completion of this trend— said the specialist.

She also added that in the leaders on the share of bad loans there are all the republics of the Caucasus, as well as Tuva, Khakassia and the Krasnodar Territory.

The head of the Committee on the Analytics of the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers (RSUD) Mikhail Khorkov confirmed that the delay is growing rapidly in absolute terms. According to him, there is nothing good in this, even despite the fact that in the relative values the proportion of bad loans remains low.

While the market only returns to the usual proportions that were before mortgage boom and the rapid growth of a mortgage portfolio. But closer to the end of the year, the volume of overdue debt may exceed the mark of 200 billion rubles and 1% of all debt. This is not so much, but the problems are accumulating and quite quickly. We expect that the pace of this process will begin to slow down next year— said the specialist.

According to the general director of PIA Real Estate Maxim Yeltsov, it is really worth paying attention to the overdue debt, but so far the indicator is not a catastrophic nature.

The delay on mortgage loans ripens gradually. In order for a 90-day delayed debt to appear, it is necessary that 1-3 years have passed from the date of issuance. In recent years, a mortgage has been issued very intensively, including for such programs, when apartments in new buildings were sold with an additional margin of 20–25%. Over time, the overall pace of extradition decreased, and the delay began to mature— the speaker explained.

In his opinion, the market will be in normal condition until the share of overdue debt reaches 1.5%.

Practice shows that the apartments from the pledge are more than successfully sold. Real estate grew in price, therefore, in most cases, apartments are in the delay, the means of the sale of which you can safely close the rest of the debt— continued Maxim Yeltsov.

In this case, the risk factor, according to the expert, is still preserved.

The greatest danger to the market is transactions by which people significantly overpayed for apartments. Now it is impossible to sell them even close to the price at which they were acquired. And in this case, even if the rate is small, for example, on a family mortgage, the borrower sometimes decides that it makes no sense to pull the loan if housing is now much cheaper than at the time of purchase— concluded Maxim Yeltsov.

source: CYANOGEN