Should Russians expect a new preferential mortgage? Marat Khusnullin gave a forecast

Marat Khusnullin also added that about 800 billion rubles will be allocated from the federal budget this year to subsidize preferential rates for state programs alone.

Financial expert and analyst Vitaly Kalugin, in a conversation with a Tsian.Zhurnal correspondent, emphasized that new measures of state support really should not be expected — but the old measures can no longer be tightened.

The family mortgage, as left after July 1, will continue to be maintained. The limits have been calculated and included in the budget. I don’t expect an increase in the rate for it, as for other remaining government programs,” the specialist commented.

In his opinion, inflation will be high throughout 2025 — “and it’s already impossible to predict further.”

In the next year and a half, developers need to come to terms with the fact that mortgage issuance volumes will drop sharply. Inflation will be high, and so will the key rate. Developers will have to tighten the straps. But considering that for three years of the existence of a preferential mortgage they have been rolling around like cheese in butter, they have fat. So I think everything will remain as it is“, concluded Vitaly Kalugin.

The head of the “Mortgage Bureau of Kamila Fazlyeva” and the project “Electronic Deal.RF” Kamila Fazlyeva noted that the gradual tightening of support measures has been taking place for almost a year, “and the trend will not change.”

Is this good or bad? Not good for today’s sales. But from a global point of view, with a consistent policy, there is a chance, on the contrary, to improve the market. For now, market participants will put pressure and demand support, convincing them that prices will not go down. Changes in a positive direction will not happen soon, — the expert predicted.

Kamila Fazlyeva also added that prices should be adjusted based on real effective demand, and support programs should be significantly revised.

Rustam Azizov, Director for Mortgage Sales and Implementation of Financial Instruments at A101 Group of Companies, suggested that the key rate could only drop to “working” values ​​for the mortgage market in 2026.

Until this time, we risk facing a significant decline in the volume of sales of comfort and business class housing — it is precisely such projects that largely depend on the state of the mortgage lending market. In 2024, the share of purchases of comfort-class apartments using a mortgage was about 90% of total sales,” the expert noted.

The speaker recalled that after the Central Bank’s mortgage standard comes into force, developers will not be able to subsidize the mortgage rate as now — up to 15% instead of the market 25%.

There are hardly any people willing to take out a mortgage at 25% or 27% if the key rate is raised again. Those who do not have time to buy an apartment with a mortgage in 2024 will be forced to pay 150-200 thousand rubles a month for it — and most likely they will simply not take out mortgage loanscontinued Rustam Azizov.

The specialist believes that if the limits on preferential programs are increased taking into account demand in 2024, then the conditions for issuing are likely to be tightened.

However, they already differ between different banks. Some issue a family mortgage on the original terms, some ask for an increased down payment of up to 30–50%, and some demand that the buyer’s money not be sent directly to the developer’s escrow accounts, but lie on a letter of credit for several months. There are also banks that charge developers a commission for issuing such mortgages, but their rate is lower — 5.5–5.6%, — summed up Rustam Azizov.

Today the task is to deliver quality housing to citizens on time. It is important to avoid delays in commissioning and deterioration in the quality of projectsNikita Stasishin said.

Following him, Vladimir Efimov, Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Urban Development Policy, took the floor. He explained that the ban on the construction of apartments up to 28 square meters. m and apartments is due to planning to provide the capital’s residents with the necessary infrastructure in the form of hospitals and schools.

In addition, the speaker said that the pace of implementation of the renovation program in Moscow will be significantly accelerated.

In the next three years, it is planned to introduce about 7 million sq. m. m of renovated housing— announced Vladimir Efimov.

However, he added that about 80% of the housing built under the program accounts for the resettlement of residents of old houses. In this regard, the commissioning of housing renovation should not have a significant impact on the commercial construction market.

source: CYANOGEN