The Bank of Russia can increase the key rate

The data that have been received over the past month, from mid-February, somehow does not significantly change the picture, including because in fact a little time has passed, — Cits the words of Alexei Zabotkin Interfax.

The Chief Analyst of the Socialist Republic of Council of Ministers Mikhail Vasiliev expects the Bank of Russia to retain the key rate at 21%again. He stated this in a conversation with the correspondent of Cyan. Journal.

At the previous meeting on February 14, the Central Bank substantially discussed the preservation of the rate of 21% and its increase to 22%. According to the results of the last meeting, the Central Bank gave a signal that it would evaluate the appropriateness of a further increase in the key rate at the next meeting. Therefore, we believe that the Central Bank can also consider the option of increasing the rate to 22%, however, the majority will probably choose to preserve the rate at 21%— said the expert.

Mikhail Vasiliev recalled that the arguments for raising the rates at the last meeting were the preservation of increased inflation rate and increased inflation expectations.

However, the latest information shows that the current inflation rate slows down, and inflationary expectations began to decline. In addition, lending, according to operational data, remains weak. <...> Under a favorable combination of circumstances, I admit that the Central Bank may begin to discuss a decrease in the key rate at subsequent meetings on April 25 and June 6— concluded the analyst.

The Executive Director of the Moscow Club of Moscow Vladislav Preobrazhensky believes that increasing the level of key rate does not bear any practical value.

The stiffness of the conducted monetary policy is quite enough so that financial bubbles do not arise, and a market loan is already inappropriate at the current levels for most borrowers. In addition, in recent years, a tangible strengthening of the national currency has occurred, which also reduces the prospect of inflation due to the rise in import of imports— the specialist emphasizes.

Vladislav Preobrazhensky suggests that at the upcoming meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, the key rate will be left at the current level.

The increase or decrease in the key rate looks unlikely, although possible— he concluded.

The general director of the ITAK Real Estate Agency Vasily Pavlov also believes that the key rate will be left at the current level.

There is an increase in inflation, but it is relatively small. If the regulator considers that a further significant increase in inflation is not expected, it will maintain a bet. In this case, there is still the probability of increasing the rate. I evaluate it at 25-30%. For bank deposits, it is likely to reduce bets. On the real estate sector, the change in the key rate on March 21 will not be in a noticeable way— concluded the expert.

Financial expert, analyst Vitaly Kalugin earlier noted that the key rate at the next meeting can be increased, since inflationary pressure is growing.

This year, a decrease in the key rate may simply not occur. As for the real estate market, until the key rate drops, relatively speaking, up to 15%, nothing will change. Then an explosive increase in demand is possible, but all this will not be in 2025. Installment, which expose people with great risks, will remain. And the mortgage market will not come to life yet— said the specialist.

source: CYANOGEN