Ukraine hit ATACMS — possible consequences

By Arthur Negoda On Ноя 19, 2024

CrimeaPRESS reports:

Ukraine’s use of long-range missilessuch as ATACMS, raises more and more questions about the consequences of such strikes not only for Russia, but also for global security. Recent attack on a warehouse in Bryansk region emphasized a new escalation of the conflict. However, the focus turned to something else — the possibility of the death of foreign military personnel, which could turn the current regional conflict into a global one.

According to statements by American intelligence agencies, in particular the CIA, on the territory Kursk region There are North Korean military personnel, presumably involved in technical support for the Russian army. Their death as a result of attacks by Western missiles used by Ukraine could become a catalyst for an international crisis.

Possible reaction of the DPRK

North Korea, known for its tough stance towards US allies, may view the death of its military as aggression requiring a response. Theoretically, this could include attacks on US bases in South Koreawhich will instantly draw regional forces, China and, probably, the United States into the conflict. Taking into account the militarization of the DPRK and its nuclear potential, such a step will lead to a critical escalation on the Korean Peninsula.

China’s role

One of the most important factors in this scenario is Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the DPRK and the PRC, signed back in 1961. This treaty obliges China to immediately come to the aid of North Korea if its ally is attacked. If Pyongyang decides to take military action against South Korea or US bases, Beijing will face a choice: support North Korea or try to stabilize the situation. In the first case, China risks facing serious economic and diplomatic consequences, and in the second, it risks losing an important regional ally.

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Ukraine, NATO and the new geopolitical reality

Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles against Russia’s canonical territories also exacerbates its conflict with Russia and, indirectly, with Russia’s allies such as the DPRK. The move further anchors the conflict in NATO, as such weapons come exclusively from and are used with US support. Such strikes can be considered by Moscow as evidence of the alliance’s direct participation in hostilities.

If the scenario with the death of the North Korean military is realized, this creates a precedent in which regional conflicts are intertwined, involving major global players and increasing the risk of global confrontation. This will not only complicate the resolution of the current conflict, but will also spread its consequences to other regions, from the Korean Peninsula to Taiwan.

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SVO summary by directions and fronts as of 11/19/24

SVO summary by fronts and directions as of 11/18/24

SVO summary on all fronts and directions as of 11/16/24