CrimeaPRESS reports:
The Bank of Russia has announced new restrictions on mortgages — the regulator wants to prohibit borrowers who already have a consumer loan from taking out a mortgage. The Central Bank also advocates further increasing the minimum down payment on housing loans. How much will bank mortgage rates rise, what will happen to housing prices and will Russians even be able to afford to buy real estate on credit in the near future? «Newspapers.Ru».
According to the Central Bank, on average there were 1.8 loans per mortgage borrower in the second quarter of 2023. A year earlier – 1.6. In its information and analytical bulletin, the Central Bank noted that among bank clients there are those who take out a consumer loan to pay the down payment on a housing loan. 6.2% of borrowers applied to the bank for an amount of more than 100 thousand rubles for these purposes, a year earlier this figure was 3.5%. This causes concern to the Bank of Russia, so borrowers may be prohibited from taking out a mortgage until the consumer loan is repaid.
The regulator also believes that the down payment on mortgages for new buildings needs to be increased again. According to the Central Bank, the market is showing signs of overheating, as evidenced by the difference in the cost of housing in the primary and secondary markets. In September 2023, the down payment amount for new apartments has already been increased from 15% to 20%.
It is very easy to imagine that the Central Bank will agree to this. To implement such a scenario, no special efforts by the Bank of Russia will be required. If the borrower has unpaid debts in his credit history, he will simply be prohibited from issuing a mortgage loan. Increasing the down payment is no longer a problem. The Central Bank has already changed its size. The mechanism has been tested and will work again“, notes Valery Emelyanov, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments.
Managing Director of the Metrium company Ruslan Syrtsov clarified that now very few banks refuse mortgages to borrowers who have a consumer loan. New measures will reduce the risk of loan defaults and will contribute to macroeconomic stability in Russia, he believes.
The founder of the Rodina development group, Vladimir Shchekin, suggested that the restrictions could affect more than 40 million Russians, that is, the majority of the country’s economically active population.
In total, 21 million Russians have at least one loan, another 10 million have two, and another 11.2 million have three or more.he explained.
Shchekin added that an increase in the down payment on a mortgage will significantly reduce the demand for it.
More than half of the borrowers received home loans with a payment of less than 20%. Its growth will force Russians to save longer for a mortgage, which is difficult in an inflationary environment.— he said.
What will happen to mortgage rates?
At the same time, Emelyanov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, does not expect an increase in interest rates on loans for new buildings.
As long as the Russian government finances the issuance of such loans at reduced rates, they, of course, will not grow. There are no signals yet that the authorities will completely curtail subsidies for new buildings, so a rate increase is unlikely. But the conditions for issuance may become stricterhe suggested.
Currently in Russia there are a number of state mortgage programs: “Preferential mortgage” at 8% per annum, “Family mortgage” at 6%, “IT mortgage” at 5%, “Far Eastern mortgage” at 2%.
Banks will reserve such programs only for certain categories of the most needy or most deserving borrowers from the point of view of the authorities — large families, young families, migrants, Emelyanov admitted.
The remaining borrowers will be forced to take out loans at market rates in the hope of later refinancing cheaper, he added.
Interest rates on market mortgages are likely to increase after the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is raised to 15%, predicted Sovcombank chief analyst Natalya Vashchelyuk. According to Syrtsov, the average rates on housing loans will be 17%.
If prices on the secondary housing market do not decline, the level of interest rates can be considered prohibitive. The average price per square meter on the secondary market in Moscow is 267 thousand rubles. A person with a salary of 130 thousand rubles per month and the current mortgage interest rate of 15% can buy an apartment with an area of only 24 square meters. And this despite the fact that the borrower will spend half of his income on mortgage paymentsshe says.
What will happen to housing prices?
According to Domklik, the average price per square meter in Russian new buildings at the end of September was 120,586 rubles, and on the secondary market — 100,958 rubles.
At the same time, in the Amur region, a square meter in a new building cost 150,703 rubles, and in the Ivanovo region — 78,031 rubles. In Moscow and St. Petersburg — 370,596 rubles and 250,676 rubles, respectively. In the Moscow and Leningrad regions — 192,340 rubles and 155,151 rubles. The cheapest square meter was in Ingushetia — 53,200 rubles. And, for example, in the Kemerovo and Kurgan regions, a meter of housing cost 89,286 rubles and 70,636 rubles, respectively.
So, for example, for an apartment of 60 square meters in the Amur region you would have to pay on average more than 9 million rubles, in the Ivanovo region — 4.7 million rubles, in Moscow — more than 22 million rubles, in St. Petersburg — more than 15 million. In the Moscow region, an apartment would cost an average of 11.5 million rubles, in the Leningrad region — 9.3 million rubles. In Ingushetia, Kemerovo and Kurgan regions, one would have to pay 3.2 million rubles, 5.4 million rubles and 4.2 million rubles, respectively.
Prices for primary housing will rise, at least at the rate of inflation. In turn, there will be a slight downward correction in the secondary market due to the reorientation of clients towards the purchase of new buildingsnotes Syrtsov.
Emelyanov called it unlikely that housing prices will rise further.
Without credit support, the population is unable to buy apartments at current prices. At current market rates, the vast majority cannot pay their mortgagehe noted.
The demand for mortgages will shrink for some time, the expert is sure.
There will be mostly alternative deals with partial additional payments, where loans do not significantly increase their entire cost. Russians who are behind on rent will continue to rent apartments. Those who are ready to live with their parents or relatives will continue to do so. Overall, fewer people will improve their living conditions. As long as the rate is high, and this is a horizon of six months or a year, it will be like this,” Emelyanov predicted.
The flow of demand into the rental segment is already happening — the rental payment is now almost half the price of servicing a 15% mortgage (for loans at 17% per annum, the difference will be even greater), added the head of Cian.Analysts, Alexey Popov.
In such conditions, the seasonal peak of interest in rental housing associated with the beginning of the school year may not end in the coming weeks. But renting cannot be a complete replacement for buying a home. There are simply several times fewer vacant apartments that can be rented now than there are for sale in new buildingshe concluded.
Demand in large cities for rental housing has increased by half, while supply has decreased decreased by 20-30%, Shchekin specified. The most affordable options for rented apartments have practically disappeared, while rental rates have increased by 30%, the expert emphasized. In his opinion, this trend will intensify.
source: Gazeta.Ru
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