When mortgage rates begin to decline, expert opinion

Mortgage rates will decrease no earlier than 2026, follows from the analytical materials of the state -owned company «Dom.rf». Taking into account the forecast of the Bank of Russia, in 2025, market rates on mortgages will be high. According to the basic scenario of the regulator, the average annual key rate will be 17-20%.

Mortgage loans will begin to actively decline no earlier than 2026, the state -owned company said. According to the forecast of Dom.rf analysts, in 2025, the issuance of housing loans will be reduced by an average of 20%. During the year, 1–1.2 million mortgage loans will be issued by 3.8-4 trillion rubles. The demand for a mortgage will restrain high rates, as well as additional tightening of the mortgage market regulation from the Central Bank. The predictable decrease in the issuance of a mortgage in 2025 is also associated with a high base of the first half of last year. Then there was a massive preferential mortgage for new buildings, while before the completion of the program, the demand for preferential loans was exciting.

The mortgage portfolio of Russian banks in 2025 will grow by less than 1 trillion rubles. It will reach 20.5–20.7 trillion rubles. A year earlier, the increase in the mortgage portfolio was much higher — it amounted to 1.9 trillion rubles.

source: CYANOGEN