Point of view: experts assessed the consequences of a possible change in the conditions of preferential mortgages

CrimeaPRESS reports:

The Russian authorities are discussing changes to the preferential mortgage program, including raising the down payment to 20%. Ivan Chebeskov, director of the financial policy department of the Russian Ministry of Finance, told reporters about this on September 5 during the Digital Finance: New Economic Reality forum. Interviewed Izvestia experts told what could be the consequences. Valery Piven, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Managing Director, Head of the Financial Institutions Rating Group of ACRA, explained that the tightening of preferential mortgage conditions will limit the ability of credit institutions to increase their portfolio, and will also become a factor in reducing the number of transactions in this segment. According to him, this may also limit the effect of increasing the limit of preferential programs.

It can also be expected that the summer expansion of lending volumes, the dynamics of which monthly strengthened the expediency of additional intervention by the Bank of Russia in the practice of mortgage lending and the establishment of risk weights at a prohibitive level for certain categories of loan claims, will be replaced by a gradual slowdown not only in the preferential segment. Against the backdrop of rising rates, this slowdown can be quite noticeablehe added.

In turn, Yury Belikov, Managing Director for Validation at the Expert RA rating agency, recalled that in order to limit the risks of overheating the mortgage market, the Bank of Russia is introducing increased premiums to risk ratios for newly issued mortgage loans from October 2023.

The regulator’s macroprudential surcharges apply equally to both concessional and market mortgages. But it was preferential loans that have been the main driver of mortgage loans since 2020 and have brought the market closer to the current state, close to overheating. Therefore, the restriction of benefits is logical. But, assessing the likelihood of such a development of events, it must be said that, in addition to independent analysts, the Bank of Russia warned about the risks of overheating, although it did not move quickly enough from statements to effective restrictive measures.— he said.

The expert noted that the majority of other departments defended the stimulation of mortgage lending, primarily through the support of preferential programs.

The need to limit the conditions of preferential programs and implement other measures aimed at cooling the market, in his opinion, is obvious if we consider the dynamics of the average cost of a residential square meter and the debt burden of citizens for the period from 2020 to the present. So, during this time, housing has risen in price and it is difficult to purchase it in million-plus cities on credit on market terms, Belikov said. Speaking about the debt burden, he noted that so far it has not resulted in a significant increase in delinquency, but it has already slowed down the pace of early repayments in bank mortgage portfolios.

In Russia, there are currently several federal preferential mortgage programs. Among them: «Family Mortgage» at 6%, «Preferential Mortgage for New Buildings» at 8% per annum, «Mortgage for IT Specialists» at 5%, «Far Eastern Mortgage» at 2%. The initial payment is 15% of the transaction amount.

On May 22, the Vyberu.ru financial marketplace told Izvestia that the demand for Family Mortgage in the Russian Federation increased by 32% in January-April 2023, and the total demand for mortgage products in April-May increased by 10%.

source: News

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