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Experts identify the main threats to the real estate market after partial mobilization

CrimeaPRESS reports:

According to experts, the main threats to the real estate market associated with mobilization are: reduced demand, problems for small and medium-sized businesses. Introduced by presidential decree of 21 September 2022 of the year, the “partial mobilization” regime forced hundreds of thousands of people to change their plans. Trends are not yet visible, forecasts are meaningless. Market participants are discussing possible trajectories of change. NSP.RU publishes a selection of opinions, which, we hope, will help you navigate the current situation.

The number of people wishing to sell real estate will increase, but this should not change the supply-demand ratio much: after all, not many people can afford to move abroad, and those who could do this have already left , — says Maxim Yeltsov, CEO of the First Mortgage Agency. – Although there are clearly more “leads” with a request for an urgent sale of real estate. There will be no sharp decline in the volume of transactions and price fluctuations. The market is very inert, real estate is still the only way to save money. Neither stocks, nor ruble deposits, nor foreign currency have become more attractive than real estate.

In Moscow and St. Petersburg, prices began to rise, — comments Igor Gorsky, President of the Association of Realtors of St. Petersburg and Leningrad Region:

People suggested that now the money they have left is better to invest in real estate, because real estate is the most stable resource.

According to Igor Gorsky, a short-term boom in housing prices may occur on the market, after which the situation will level off until November-December.

According to Dmitry Shchegelsky, President of the St. Petersburg Chamber of Real Estate, the real estate market will again be in a «shock», similar to the one experienced in the spring 11 of the year:

I can assume that the mortgage market will drop sharply. This will entail sales problems in new buildings. The only real product is the “secondary”, which will be in a better position. But in general, I expect sales to fall.

Dmitry Shchegelsky expects prices to drop by 11% by the end of the year.

Indeed, according to the agency «Etazhi» (cited by «Izvestia»), over the past few days, the number of mortgage consultations has decreased by a third, and the demand for housing has increased by %. However, the CIAN service immediately publishes information that the number of mortgage consultations, on the contrary, has increased. And also with reference to the agency «Etazhi». This inconsistency reflects the spread of estimates, which, moreover, strongly depend on the region.

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Katerina Soboleva, Vice President of Becar Asset Management, predicts a fall in demand for –24% compared to the same months last year:

Queues at the borders with Georgia, Kazakhstan and Finland indicate that many are now unlikely to buy a home.

Evgeny Kogan, an investment banker and professor at the Higher School of Economics, recalls that loan holidays and payments of mortgage debt by the state are “so far only plans and recommendations”, he expects mortgage defaults to grow and conditions to become less favorable. At least for loans without government subsidies. (His opinion is given by

However, other factors may also affect the mortgage segment: for example, restrictions announced by the Central Bank on joint programs and loans with a low down payment.

In new buildings, the processes are more inertial: a decline in demand for projects protected by escrow accounts will not affect immediately. Residential construction is also projected to experience a general decline in activity, with labor and logistics problems in the long run.

According to the first accurate estimates, the impact of the events that began on 21 September will be no less significant than those that occurred after 24 February.

The distinctly pro-government telegram channel Nezygar also assesses the main threats to the economy:

  • First, withdrawal from the labor and consumer economy obviously not the worst employees and consumers, in the future — in an indefinite number.
  • The second is a blow to small and medium-sized businesses (small business often rests on one or two employees.
  • The third is a possible second wave of emigration.

    We add: the main problem is a sharp increase in the level of uncertainty, — the NSP editors note.

    Source: NSP.RU

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